Maybe I'm crazy, but after witnessing Michigan State's ineffectiveness last week in losing 31-13 at Michigan, I just don't see them getting up to play (at home albeit) Ohio State, who's made a habit of crushing spreads this season. (Except for last week but that was 36 points, come on.) So, against my natural inclinations, I'm taking Ohio State -14 and I'm not really that worried.
Second, I'm taking Michigan -6 at Penn State with or without Mario Manningham. I just don't think this matchup works out for Penn State offensively or defensively. And a bunch of drunk-ass kids wearing white t-shirts in the dark does not make a lick of difference. I think Michigan can run on this defense and pass on them and I think Penn State, whose pass game needs the run to be effective, will struggle against Mchigan's dominant front seven.
Other lines I'm evaluating but haven't decided on:
Boise State -26.5 at New Mexico State. I didn't bet on them last week with a 36.5 line and they won by 40 or something crazy. But the games being playined in Las Cruces, and the Broncos are less consistent on the road. Won by 7 at Wyoming. Won by 33 at Utah. Still it's only four touchdowns against New Mexico State and Boise State needs to run up the score to trick the computers into granting a BCS berth. It's looking like I'll take this bet.
Hawaii -4 at Fresno State. I could see this line working out either way. The game's at Fresno, but the Rainbow Warriors have been road warriors this season, taking it to Boise State on the blue and just barely losing 41-34. Fresno State has been terrible this year. Tough call.
Finally, I kind of like Washington -9.5 at home against the Beavers of Oregon State. The Dawgs impressed last weekend in a competitive loss at USC. Back in Seattle they could stomp the sluggish Beavers.
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