Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Blathering Incoherently?
If I ever hear the "real issue" perhaps I can stop confusing it with my fake issue.
At any rate, as I prepare to heed my friendly colleague's advice, it is a tad bit ironic to implore me to "shut up and enjoy the season like gentlemen" while calling your number one ranked opponent "Bumpkins."
If calling fans of your rivals "Bumpkins" while posting hilarious videos of them is being a gentleman, then I'd rather be an incoherently blathering idiot.
Monday, October 30, 2006
Betting Post Mortem and Rock Paper Scissors (It All Makes Sense)
I'm not sure if anyone followed along at home, but on a whim of stupidity I decided to overlook the fact that Stewart Mandel is a mealy wimp with Cheetoes-stains on his t-shirt and bought into his picks to inform my bets for the weekend. (I should have given more creedence to the alarm sounding in my head once I noticed his uncanny resemblence to Jared from the Subway commericals.)
Here's what I took.
Missouri -1.5 at home against Oklahoma
UCLA -1.5 at home against Washington State
Florida -13.5 against Georgia
Georgia Tech -5 at home against Miami
Texas Tech +10.5 at home against Texas
And after going 2/5 and finishing down in the money sector, here's what I'll take away: nobody's got a fucking clue how a game's going to play out. From here on out I'm going with my gut. That's the same gut that said the Trojan's were in trouble, and the same gut that says Switter's "analysis" of the "numbers" pertinent to Ohio State/Michigan (below) is about as well researched as the skidmarks in his underwear.
Or, the Bush Administration's reasoning for starting the Iraq War as Dave at Michigan points out:
As recently as Monday, Cheney said in a speech that Hussein "had long-established ties with Al Qaeda."...later that year, "We have never claimed that Saddam Hussein had either direction or control of 9/11."
We've seen this tactic before; stop trying to confuse the issue.
Looking at how teams did against common opponents (particularly when they are all victories) is just silly...pointing to it at all is confusing a comparison of two teams. Is there any difference, at all, between beating a team by 21 or 14? What about playing two of the three games you mentioned w/o your best offensive weapon? 2 of the three on the road? It just makes me sad to see a once proud college football blog, like collegefootball.blogspot
It only stings because it's true.
The transitive property doesn't even work in Rock Paper Scissors. Try it for yourself: paper beats rock, and rock beats scissors, so paper should have no problem mopping the floor with scissors right? We know how this game ends.
Admittedly, Rock Paper Scissors is a much simpler game than college football (it's purely logical for instance), but we can still glean something from its simplicity. There's always a paper to someone's rock, a scissors to someone's paper and a rock to someone's scissors.
Knowing this, we can continue to make excuses or elementary comparisons like four year olds matching the right shape with the right hole, or we can shut up and enjoy the season like gentlemen. This is a complicated world, with complicated complications complicating the outcomes of football games. The Game is coming and will be decided on the field where we will see the simplicity emerge, who is rock and who is paper. Any of our conjecture in the meantime is just a way to fend off our own insecurities (assuming we have any).
So I say to Switters, stop blathering incoherently as a way to deal with your fear.
Saturday, October 28, 2006
Ohio State and Michigan by the Numbers
The only real comparison we can make right now, and I'm not saying it's a fair one, is to look at the scores of the common teams played within the Big Ten. The three common opponents at this point in the season are Penn State, Iowa, and Minnesota.
Michigan beat Penn State by 7
Ohio State beat Penn State by 22
Michigan beat Iowa by 14
Ohio State beat Iowa by 21
Michigan beat Minnesota by 14
Ohio State beat Minnesota by 44
Certainly food for thought.
Friday, October 27, 2006
Betting on Football
To wit, here are my bets for this weekend:
Missouri -1.5 at home against Oklahoma X
UCLA -1.5 at home against Washington State
Florida -13.5 against Georgia X
Georgia Tech -5 at home against Miami X
Texas Tech +10.5 at home against Texas X
Thursday, October 26, 2006
Hype City
The fact that The Game is still over three weeks away makes you wonder what astronomical prices the tickets could hit and fuels the argument that Michigan - Ohio State is the greatest rivalry in sports.
It also makes me lament the current state of attending live events, whether sports or music or Wicked the Wizard of Oz Musical. Ticket resellers, thanks to the connective power of the Internet are ripping people off to untold profits above face value.
To some degree this is market-driven. By expanding the number of people who can get a chance to see an event beyond season-ticket holders or those who sleep outside the box office, Internet resellers have expanded the market and given some folks an opportunity to see something they would otherwise have missed. But they'll have to pay for it. And there's the sinister side. At prices like these, even dedicated fans must consider selling out for a quick buck, or five thousand. Hey, you'd probably see the action better at home anyway with your new flat panel plasma screen tv.
I try not to take the stump much, especially on a blog about a happy subject like football, but I want to call your attention to a new force that's threatening this already unfair situation. Simply said, something's got to be done about Ticketmaster, the original event ticket middle man. Currently Ticketmaster is lobbying state governements to make any ticket sold at $1 or more above face value in the secondary market illegal unless it was resold by an issuer with a contract with the event's organizer (like an NFL team or music venue). As a primary market vendor, Ticketmaster already maintains exclusive rights to many of these relationships, while Stubhub, Craigslist and others do not. With the simple signing of a bill, that Ticketmaster is promoting as in the interest of ticket buyers, Ticketmaster could wipe out the competition even before it enters the secondary ticket market.
Think monopoly, price fixing and rampant 'convenience' fees.
Read on for the details and to get enraged!
(Especially if you live in New York, Florida or Massachusetts. I'm sorry Connecticut and Louisiana, you've already been sold out by your Legislatures.)
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
Week 9: Yes
*Ugh. My call on Vanderbilt could not have been further off. I blame Stewart Mandel, who called them an upset candidate. I agreed because I thought they’d taken some better SEC teams to the wire, and beat
Saturday, October 21, 2006
Pics
Vanderbilt +3.5 at home against South Carolina
NMST +20.5 at home against Hawaii
Boise State -20.5 on the road at Idaho
I was also thinking about Clemson -7 at home against Georgia Tech, so I asked my token Clemson fan friend for a little confidence-building insight. Here's what I got:
i'm certainly nervous about it. nine of the last 10 games between GT and Clemson have been decided by five points or fewer. it is homecoming and College Game Day is in town so there's no question it'll be exciting. I just hope we show up. The Tigers are ranked first in scoring in the NCAA right now with an average of 43 points per game so GT is really going to need to bring their D to stop us. the problem is we're going to need to bring our D to stop Reggie Ball, their extremely versatile QB.
Uhh... I'm going to hold off for now.
Thursday, October 19, 2006
Michigan Fans: Come Back to Earth!!
Consider this my first shot across the bow to the evil pirate ship that is the University of Michigan football team.
Ever since September 16, when Michigan dismantled Notre Dame and disappointed domers across the nation, I've seen a side of Michigan fans I haven't seen in years.
After 5 straight years of at least 3 losses, Michigan is back at the top. In fact, there's some outrage that they're not ranked high enough at #3! But I just want Michigan fans to remember that this is LLLLoyd Carr we're dealing with here.
I love the fanfare, and the excitement involved with the potential of seeing OSU and Michigan play, both undefeated on November 18, but as a Michigan fan, I'd be concerned.
I'm not making any predictions or condemnations, but I have to say that if I'm Michigan, I am frightened of Troy Smith's patience, poise, decision making, and overall athletic ability.
I'd also be scared of Antonio Pittman, averaging almost 100 yards/game, and the double threat of Ginn and Gonzalez.
Remember at the beginning of the year, when Ohio State's defense was a concern? Now it's oft-mentioned among the top five in the country. We're giving up:
*An average of one TD a game
*Less than 300 yards/game
*9 points/game.
Troy has Glendale on his mind, and the rest of the Buckeyes are on board. Nothing is going to get in this team's way.
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
Watch Out Tate
Since Tate was recently demoted to dwarf-planet status and Albert Young is missing from the Hawkeye depth chart (via MGoBlog) count this news as strike three for the Iowa QB: apparently the first and second string QBs are suffering the lingering effects of Branch, Woodley et al. and have not been medically cleared to play following their respective concussions.
The repercussions, here? Things aren't looking good for Tate and the Hawkeyes this Saturday in Ann Arbor. The D line dominates again. Take Michigan at -13.
Monday, October 16, 2006
Week 8: BCS Rankings, Bullshit, Big Ten Ascendancy
*Notre Dame had a bye week and I didn’t miss them at all.
Will the SEC Ever Stop Whining?
The irony is practically making me pass out over here. Maybe I need some good old-fashioned Southern lemonade. Or a whiskey.
So the first BCS rankings come out on Sunday, and out of all people, Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville has the audacity to say that the SEC will be overlooked:
"Every year, it's going to be like this. Until we get a playoff, the SEC's going to be on the outside looking in. I don't think [a one-loss SEC team in the BCS title game] will ever happen. I think people are enamored by not losing, rather than voting on who the best teams are. That's what I do. Of course, you've got to look at the wins and losses, but you've got to look at who they lost to, where they lost and how they came back."
This is coming from a guy whose team got waxed, at HOME, by an UNRANKED team, and is now ranked #4 in the BCS.
If anything, the SEC is getting too much respect by putting a one-loss (and really shitty loss) team ahead of some deserving undefeated squads.
And about the SEC having a title game and other major conferences not having one, the Big Ten does have one: it's called the Ohio State/Michigan game.
I'd love to see Auburn take on the Buckeyes in the title game, but this year, Auburn will be on the outside looking in. But that's not because they're being overlooked, it's because they lost to an unranked team at home.
Sorry, Tommy.
Saturday, October 14, 2006
Big Mess at the U
Friday, October 13, 2006
Sleeping With the Devil - Week 7 Pics
Second, I'm taking Michigan -6 at Penn State with or without Mario Manningham. I just don't think this matchup works out for Penn State offensively or defensively. And a bunch of drunk-ass kids wearing white t-shirts in the dark does not make a lick of difference. I think Michigan can run on this defense and pass on them and I think Penn State, whose pass game needs the run to be effective, will struggle against Mchigan's dominant front seven.
Other lines I'm evaluating but haven't decided on:
Boise State -26.5 at New Mexico State. I didn't bet on them last week with a 36.5 line and they won by 40 or something crazy. But the games being playined in Las Cruces, and the Broncos are less consistent on the road. Won by 7 at Wyoming. Won by 33 at Utah. Still it's only four touchdowns against New Mexico State and Boise State needs to run up the score to trick the computers into granting a BCS berth. It's looking like I'll take this bet.
Hawaii -4 at Fresno State. I could see this line working out either way. The game's at Fresno, but the Rainbow Warriors have been road warriors this season, taking it to Boise State on the blue and just barely losing 41-34. Fresno State has been terrible this year. Tough call.
Finally, I kind of like Washington -9.5 at home against the Beavers of Oregon State. The Dawgs impressed last weekend in a competitive loss at USC. Back in Seattle they could stomp the sluggish Beavers.
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
Chat Transcript: The Implications of Mario
switters: jeez
i didn't know mario had surgery
Sent at 10:17 AM on Wednesday
nastyb: yeah
bummer
if you read the blog everyday you'd have known
i'm on top of shit
i understand
i wish i was on top of it
switters: mostly on the tigers
and "work"
nastyb: yeah
anyway if
switters: yes
for sure
before The Game
switters: dude
we have
indiana/minnesota/illinois/northwestern
so awesome
first two home second two away
at
tough
just ask sparty
i guess if you're terrible, that's true
nastyb: after
northwestern, ball state and
switters: wow
don't they have 4 games?
nastyb: the 4th game is
switters: hmm
nastyb: and no week off either
switters: right
nastyb: i think "ball state" is the "week off"
but the same could be said of
switters: ha
yeah
we just had that
with BG
nastyb: anyway
i don't think you beat penn state with deep bombs anyway, so i'm thinking we won't miss mario that much
psu plays a lot of cover defense
that deep throw smith had was just a plain miracle
switters: yeah
i wouldn't say "miracle"
i don't think god helped with it
i'd say a great play by a great athlete
nastyb: troy smith didn't thank god after the game?
switters: i'm sure he did
but he does after every game
nastyb: there you go
switters: we can get philosophical if you want, but troy smith is a great athlete
nastyb: agreed
switters: chad henne could not make that play
nastyb: he wouldn't have to
switters: with the help of jesus or not
how come
Sent at 10:42 AM on Wednesday
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
Does Mario Manningham Matter?
As to what news exactly, Carr, in typical grim mouth fashion, failed to elaborate. Though MGoBlog does: he's out 2-3 weeks with miniscus damage, but back for The Game.
Larger Ramifications:
Michigan falls from -7 favorites to -6 on this news.
Is this an harbinger of doom for Michigan's so far golden season? Penn State this Saturday? How about Iowa the following weekend? In which game will the deep bomb be the missing key to success?
Monday, October 09, 2006
Week 6: The Sun Rises in the SEC East
I think its safe to say that LSU had a significant role in their defeat on Saturday, namely in that their offense didn’t execute. Whether that’s the home-field advantage of the Swamp (Kirk Herbstreit called it the most significant home-field advantage in College Football on Saturday) ,
Speaking of whom, as my brother would say, Tim Tebow’s “got minerals” and he looks like the real deal. I don’t know what minerals have to do with anything, but the sentiment is agreed upon. Particularly, you can see “real dealness” in his now-famous “jumpshot” touchdown pass, or the de rigeur ten yards he picks up on his draws even though everyone knows it’s coming. Minerals indeed. I think Tim Tebow gets enough iron in his diet. It’s scary for the rest of the SEC that he’s only a freshman.
But before we crown Florida let’s see if they can ride it out as the #2 team in the country (I still can’t fathom the USA Today Coaches Poll persisting with USC at #2, so I will henceforward disregard that poll). So far this season this has been the most dangerous ranking in the Top 10.
Just ask
On the strength of a daring offensive game plan (which included a rare, crouching fumblerooski) and stout defense, Nutt walked into Jordan Hare stadium and handled
Finally, maybe the SEC West isn’t that good? Brian at MGoBlog expands in his latest BlogPoll.
Back to the Coaches Poll, the curse of #2 may well apply here as well since I foresee a tough road ahead for the USC Trojans. After two tests in a row to the middling Pac 10 schools from
*Manningham has 527 yards and 9 touchdowns receiving this season compared to Ted Ginn’s 459 yards and 6 TDs and Ginn’s the Heisman candidate?
Sunday, October 08, 2006
The Morning After
Thanks go to NC State, Wake Forest, Tennessee and Washington for making it just a bit better than a push on the weekend.
Boise State (-36) and Michigan (-15), both of whom I did not bet on for the first time this year, covered their spreads. Dammit.
But the Buckeyes (-35.5) did not and I am glad for having refrained on that one.
Saturday, October 07, 2006
My Pics
Washington +19 at USC
Oklahoma +4 vs. Texas at the Red River Shootout
Oregon +5 at Cal
Tennessee +2.5 at Georgia
LSU Straight Even at Florida
Friday, October 06, 2006
Brother, Could You Spare a BCS Berth?
Not that TCU and Boise State were slated to play this season, but TCU's crumbling by 13 points to a team that Boise State beat by 33 does serve to legitimate Boise State's assertion that they are much better than TCU. The shear margins that sperate BSU > Utah > TCU are enough (46 points) that I not only feel entitled, but compelled, to apply the transitive property here in the hopes that we can create a groundswell of enthusiam for the Boise State Broncos in their mission to earn a BCS Bowl berth. Since they aren't a shoo-in, they'll need the help of public opinion.
Obviously, they still have to win out, but it's not to early to join Boise State AD Gene Bleymaier in drumming up some BCS support for the boys of the Blue.
Thursday, October 05, 2006
Tempting Spreads
NC State +10 Hosting FSU - both teams suck so I don't see a dominant FSU victory, I actually see it barely happening. I'm placing my bet today, since the game's tonight.
thats a tough call. in years past I would say definitely take Wake... we always seem to play down to Wake, especially in Winston Salem, but Clemson is trying hard to make a name for themselves this year. we've put up more than 50 points in three games so far this year and are averaging over 40 points a game right now. that being said, we lost our Senior RB a week or so ago (our 2 best are a freshman and sophomore though) and one of our top receivers broke his foot in practice this week and is out for 4 to 5 weeks... so I'm inclined to say take the Deacons +17.
Bowling Green +35.5 At
nastyb: what do you think of Ohio State -35.5 this weekend
that's a huge line